Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 11.220038 13.129551 15.212114 17.645127 20.402271 23.422311 26.972969
2025-01-19 8.076744 10.635312 13.704675 17.625317 22.464174 28.202540 35.480446
2025-01-26 6.650876 9.662934 13.569589 18.927423 25.992350 34.888804 46.821885
2025-02-02 5.518777 8.747158 13.229064 19.759437 28.858344 40.891431 57.773257
2025-02-09 4.677826 8.018894 12.946187 20.514167 31.567320 46.799400 68.979462
2025-02-16 3.849849 7.121332 12.233603 20.484957 33.072884 51.083632 78.203375
2025-02-23 3.099835 6.184278 11.285892 19.923171 33.655876 54.007113 85.615734
2025-03-02 2.471343 5.317259 10.295480 19.123619 33.724877 56.091957 91.850532
2025-03-09 2.082329 4.799738 9.799010 19.036160 34.850138 59.778063 100.628843
2025-03-16 1.732705 4.282163 9.214937 18.705429 35.507339 62.731672 108.410745
2025-03-23 1.592981 4.164771 9.345104 19.634654 38.333498 69.282016 122.156891
2025-03-30 1.404585 3.901683 9.152002 19.936478 40.075870 74.148821 133.452348
2025-04-06 1.206097 3.581260 8.813583 19.955268 41.372274 78.454293 144.259850
2025-04-13 1.037737 3.295488 8.505523 19.999445 42.723425 82.954714 155.687221
2025-04-20 0.997256 3.327157 8.888192 21.472499 46.855190 92.506745 176.122548
2025-04-27 0.921458 3.247031 9.007073 22.406926 50.023925 100.538694 194.357999
2025-05-04 0.847467 3.154355 9.081680 23.249661 53.069217 108.509446 212.864002
2025-05-11 0.734318 2.917087 8.772812 23.218128 54.366314 113.368457 226.134133
2025-05-18 0.609631 2.607038 8.230213 22.593237 54.394266 115.865897 235.299474
2025-05-25 0.494409 2.289494 7.609202 21.703033 53.777898 117.087497 242.182667
2025-06-01 0.426459 2.114283 7.337830 21.605646 54.822739 121.520027 255.133506
2025-06-08 0.359598 1.919387 6.975373 21.237187 55.238373 124.735475 265.949027
2025-06-15 0.341858 1.913890 7.162499 22.272195 58.836041 134.405871 289.320623